I used to read Popular Science religiously. Those great stories about the new technologies were so exciting, sometimes I had trouble sitting still. And the best part was turning to the back where you could buy some DIY kit! I remember there were "lightsabers" and "hovercrafts" and flying vehicles, all available in kit form. I have since stopped reading Popular Science, but I could very easily imagine some of those ads on the back. One might just happen to read "Batteries no longer necessary. Ultra-capacitor is the wave of the future! Cheap energy for all!". Of course, these are in fact the headlines for an Austin based company EEStor.

So I'm going to say it. I don't think EEStor will deliver on the hype surrounding them. Even the more recent endorsements from third party auditors, a deal with Lockheed Martin and their ongoing partnership with ZENN motors does not make me think they can produce an award winning product any more than other companies out there could. Part of me thinks there are signs that prove this (explained below) but the other part of me is secretly hoping this is one of those situations where I say something will never happen and then it immediately does. This could be called "self-reverse-psychology" or "deluding myself" or even just "being wrong", but who cares? I just don't see it in the cards for EEStor and I'm not the only one.

Oh sorry. I forget sometimes that the only people who fall into reading my blog are my lovely friends and hopefully a few casual browsers. EEStor is a company that claims they have and are continuing to develop an "ultra-capacitor" capable of producing capacitors with extremely high capacitance, thanks to a new dielectric material, barium titanate. But real quick, let's look at capacitors in general for anyone who might not have the whole picture. (Maybe skip down the page if you know how capacitors work).

The simplest capacitor possible is two flat plates of metal, connected to a DC electricity source:

When you turn on the source, charge flows to either side of the plate, but cannot pass through. In this case it cannot pass through because of the air in between the plates; here, the air is the dielectric.

Ok, so now there is charge stored on either side of the plates...but what good does that do? Well, there are myriad uses for the capacitor in the world of science and otherwise; but in the most basic definition, a capacitor exists to store energy. Furthermore, the higher the capacitance of a capacitor, the more energy it can store. So how do we get that capacitance to be higher? Let's look at the equation (real quick, I promise and then no more equations).

Here C is capacitance, A is the area of the plates, d is the distance between the plates, and ε is something called the permittivity of the dielectric. So to make C bigger, we either need to make A or ε much bigger or d much smaller. At first I thought EEStor was trying to only find a better dielectric (with a higher value for "ε"), which would look like this:

This shows that the charges being closer together, but in reality, it's that the material between the plates allows the electric field to permeate through to the other side better than air. This approach of having a better dielectric is actually closer to an electrolytic type capacitor.

However, EEStor is trying to make a better ultra-capacitor. So back to the formula (last time). Ultra-capacitors try to change everything in the formula. To maintain overall size of capacitors, the area of the plates ("A") is changed by adding material with higher surface area (Wikipedia lists a possible material as activated charcoal). This gives the charges on each plate more places to rest. Next, the distance between the plates ("d") is reduced to be as small as possible, down to the nanometer range. This is where most ultra-capacitor manufacturers stop. They use an ultra-thin dielectric layer with a standard permittivity ("ε") and then surround the capacitor in electrolytic fluid. This limits the overall capacitance and the material properties of the current dielectric also limits the amount of voltage (potential energy), usually to around 3V (rather there is a trade off between voltage rating and capacitance).

EEStor is trying to change all of this by using a dielectric with a much higher value. They use barium titanate, which in a powder form has a very high dielectric constant and very high tolerance to voltage. They claim to compress the material to a pure form in a very thin layer (up to 99.9994% purity, they claim), which should maintain that high dielectric constant; however, this is up for contention. If they do manage to purify the material, they will be able to put a much higher voltage across the dielectric without fear of material breakdown, which they claim is main benefit of using barium titanate. Additionally, they use many different layers of the dielectric and other plates in order to create a higher capacitance. Why, you ask? Because the work (Energy * charge) a capacitor is capable of producing is equal to

That means if you are capable of increasing the voltage rating of a capacitor (how much it can handle before the dielectric breaks down or blows up), the work goes up in a square relation to that higher voltage (doubling the voltage yields 4 times the work). You can have a much higher energy density in the device, making the operation appear to be closer to that of a battery.

Alright, so we're finally at the point where I explain why I think that EEStor won't deliver on their promises. First, let's look at what they have promised:

1. A working prototype by the end of 2008. A fully implemented device in a ZENN vehicle by the end of 2009.
2. A Capacibattery at half the cost per kilowatt-hour and one-tenth the weight of lead-acid batteries.
3. A selling price to start at $3,200 and fall to $2,100 in high-volume production.
4. Weighs 400 pounds and delivers 52 kilowatt-hours.
5. The batteries fully charge in minutes as opposed to hours.

Yikes. Those are some pretty lofty goals. I'd say the most unbelievable of these is the first one (followed closely by the third). Since they haven't shown the slightest sign of publicity, there really is not much to go off of. In fact, as a business model, EEStor has mystique as it's main asset. They could go public with no product and have people bid up the stock price towards the sky with absolutely no product behind the curtain. In fact, the only people who have really stuck their head out to talk about this product is the CEO of ZENN motors, Ian Clifford. And why not? Even if the EEStor product (called the EESU) is a flop, ZENN motors can play the martyr and get the free publicity. But that's all business. What about the technical stuff? Let's look at some safety/efficiency/production concerns that could prevent them from making a product that can be mass produced at (relatively) low prices:

1. ESR
   • ESR stands for "Equivalent Series Resistance". It is caused by imperfections in both the dielectric and the material that connects the capacitor to the rest of the world. The ESR is how much the imperfections impede the current flow, as the current works to align internal bonds (in both the capacitor and the connecting material). Normally, ESR will not have any effect at DC because it is assumed that there is no charging time. However, charging a battery or capacitor is more like an AC signal (albeit only half of a cycle), and the faster someone tries to charge it (in EEStor's case, quite fast) the higher resistance will be. This will translate to heat in the capacitor and wasted energy. With the high currents being pushed through the capacitor at high rates, this becomes a safety concern first and an efficiency concern second.
2. High Voltage
   • This is really the key to the EEStor device. If they are ever planning to have a super fast charge, it will require higher voltages, likely on the order of kV. However, the high voltages have the obvious safety concerns (ZAP!) and the not-so-obvious concerns such as skin effects. Manufacturing a safe product that will pass automotive standards will be a difficult test. Consistently turning out a reasonably priced product that will safely deliver those same voltages will be even more difficult.
3. Piezoelectric Effect
   • Piezoelectric effect occurs when the crystal structure of a substance is stressed and then releases charge. The best piezos release charge all in the same direction based on their crystal structure. What happens when this box gets compressed, via a car crash? Will all of the charge be released at once? Will a fender bender turn into a ZENN car sponsored fricassee? (on a related, but unimportant note: If we go to all electric cars, what will happen in car chases in the future and they want to blow up the other car? Even though it doesn't actually work, what will they shoot if there's no gas tank? )
4. Material/Production Costs
   • The product we have heard about so far, with extreme purity, will require a cleanroom-like setting, a foundry-like setting, or both (comparing it to what I know about fabs). In any of these scenarios, the cost of operation far exceeds what most venture capital firms are willing and capable of supplying in terms of cash. Unless they are quickly bought by a large scale producer of batteries or similar technologies, they would not have the working capital necessary to bring their production facility to a point where they are making enough units to create economies of scale (lowering the overall cost by averaging large fixed cost over all products produced).
5. Manufacturing issues/Large scale manufacturing
   • Aside from the material cost and the operations cost, let's look at the obvious: making one of these units seems to be hard.  I understand that they are developing processes to create these products, but the precision required for a consistent quality product could be so cost sensitive that they will drive the final part cost way past the projected $3200 price tag.
6. Leakage
   • Leakage would likely not be a barrier to production, but it would probably hurt them in their ability to deliver a product with the longevity needed to power cars. If the voltage across a capacibattery is supposed to be 1kV or higher, even with the best available insulators, there will be some amount of leakage (everything allows it). If the car was required to be plugged in while in a parking lot it would not be as big of an issue, but I don't believe this is the model they are going for; they seem to want to deliver a standalone piece of equipment.
   • Another way "leakage" can happen is across the dielectric. As capacitors age, the stress on the dielectric barrier eventually starts to break down and let electrons through. If EEstor does not properly monitor for DC leakage, there could eventually be catastrophic failure of the capacitor, as more and more current moves through the dielectric; this would heat up the device to unsafe temperatures and eventually cause a meltdown or explosion (exciting, but unsafe).
7. Efficiencies
   • Let's say you have a "fueling station" that is actually capable of charging a ZENN car in minutes (as opposed to hours); it would likely require voltages on the order of kV as opposed to 10s or 100s of volts and currents that are on the order of amps. Let's say for our example that we are trying to transfer 10 kW (10A * 1000V) . Even at 95% efficiency of power transfer (a very optimistic estimation), that means we would be wasting at least 500W everytime that we go to charge our capacicars.
8. Infrastructure
   • While my friend Nate would love to point out that the energy density of these devices still won't approach that of gasoline or ethanol, they are proposing a product that comes closer than any others have yet. However, to achieve their miraculously fast charge times and high capacity capacitors, the product will require a charging station as mentioned above that is capable of deliving a high voltage payload to the battery (hopefully at a high efficiency). This means we'll either need to convert gas stations into power stations or create huge step up transformers for the home. Remember, US line voltages coming into a house are 120V out of your wall socket. That will take some expensive equipment to safely regulate those voltages and convert to DC (another potential efficiency problem). The costs associated with implementing such a system (either commercially or in the home) could seriously hinder any chance of public acceptance.

So for the final piece of this ultra-capacitor manifesto, let's look at the possible scenarios we might eventually encounter with EEStor. Aside from the skeptics, there are a good deal of people who are hopeful this company will succeed and fully expect it to; this outcome is possible, but the extent to which EEStor delivers will be up for anyone's guess. As such, I've included a complementary predicition of the chance each will happen (in percentage):

1. They deliver a "product" but it is only a fraction of the promised delivery-Perhaps they have an overzealous marketing person.
   • Chance of happening: 40%
2. They deliver a product but price it so high, there is no way to employ it in any commercial application for the next 5 years-Lockheed still might buy it. Lockheed's interest is what got everyone so excited again back in May...but it doesn't mean this product will be delivered or that it's even possible.
   • Chance of happening: 55%
3. They deliver on all of their specifications and price targets
   • Chance of happening: 5%

So go ahead EEStor, prove me wrong. I don't want to seem like those people that said man would never fly or that there would be no need for more than 5 computers, I just wanted to write an article pointing out the difficulties that EEStor is likely to encounter and hopefully have already overcome. So EEstor, if you're sending out samples and need a tester, I would be happy to play with one of your toys. And if you (the reader) think I missed any crucial points about ultra-capacitors or EEstor, please let me know in the comments.

Either my readership has extended to people at multinational corporations or the idea is intrinsically viable enough to actually work! Either way, I'm happy.

Junko Yoshida of EE Times reports that Sharp Corp and TDK corp have both displayed home mock-ups that include DC modules running of of solar cells and do not require any AC/DC or DC/AC conversion (thereby saving power wasted on the conversion process). This is reminiscent of when I asked if DC can power an entire home. They cite instances of using DC power to directly use in LED home lighting, flatscreens and various other commercial products.

Looks like the idea is catching on, I can't wait until it becomes possible for everyone!

This blog started when I moved back to Cleveland. Really, it was a little bit sooner, but it got going full time once I was settled in back in May. Since I've been back, I've actually really enjoyed it. There are some things I miss about Austin (where I used to live), but I am happy with my decision, most notably because of my job. I feel like I am part of the minority that is moving back North, that others in my generation are more likely to head south at the first opportunity.

Is there any reason to live in the north anymore?

Let's go over the sour points first:

1. It's cold -- No brainer on that one, it definitely snows more in Ohio than in Texas, but you do get the benefit of some winter sports (skiing, tubing, professional snowman making) and the picturesque nature of seeing snow on Christmas or at other times (this wears off after about two weeks). Unfortunately, the cold lasts longer than most people would like in Ohio. Back in Texas I was wearing shorts and tubing down the river by March.
2. Gas/Heating --  This year might be the best example of expensive heating, but it has yet to play out. Oil prices are falling right now but could easily rise again in time for winter. There are some other (corny) ways to heat your house, so oil prices do not have the final say in how much we'll be paying per month for oil north of the Mason-Dixon line. On the bright side, we're paying WAY less for electricity than the south during the summer months.
3. Young people -- There's kind of an avalanche effect to people migrating out of one city or into another. The more people that move somewhere, the "hotter" the scene becomes and more people want to move there. Cleveland still has a pretty vibrant night life, but it pales in comparison to Austin and some other larger cities.
4. Urban Development -- Suburbs happen. Sprawl happens. The longer a city has been around (such as those  in the north), the more people want to spread out and get their own space. This is slowly happening in the south (Dallas, anyone?), but Austin is still relatively compact. With newer, smaller, growing southern cities, urban planning can help to compact things and make them more accessible. If you are moving to a city in the north, it's likely that a lot of the urban development is already done (though not completely).
5. Jobs -- We hear about the manufacturing jobs lost in Mid-West every time you turn on NPR. But there are also less large corporations in the north, due to some of the above listed reasons and less amiable tax laws than parts of the south.

But there is a lot of bright spots in Cleveland, even in the winter!

1. Water -- Necessary for life, right? Well some people didn't really think about that when they were setting up new cities and towns in the southwest (I'd reference all of Arizona first). The Mid-West though? We've got tons of it! The great lakes are a great resource, whether for shipping, recreation, fishing or even lighting on fire (go Cleveland!). It definitely makes the summer months that much better and makes the winter months that much more bearable. Polar bear club, anyone?
2. Infrastructure -- Even though we may be a sprawling metropolis with many different cities, I will say that Cleveland has the benefit of a well developed system of roads. If you are so inclined, you can also take an AmTrak train to more destinations than you can from Austin (more track = more destinations...but to be fair you can get to most any city if you sit on a train long enough).
3. Proximity -- This was another nice deciding factor, both in where I went to school and why I wanted to move back. I can easily drive home to Buffalo in 3 hours, can drive to Columbus in 2.5, can drive to Detroit in 2.5 if I'm feeling feisty and can get to Chicago or DC in about 6. This compared with Austin having a 3 hour drive to the next biggest city (that I didn't want to visit anyway) and a 12 hour drive to get out of the state.
4. Airport -- Similar to above, sometimes you just want to get out of town. If you can't drive, you might as well fly. And if you're going to fly, you might as well fly out of a hub. Even though continental decided to cut back their flights out of Cleveland, we have a great place to fly out of to get to some warmer destinations in those bleak winter months.
5. Home Prices/Cost of Living -- Thanks in part to our bozo friends in the finance industry and the overzealous DIYer house crowd, the housing market isn't doing too hot right now. However, if you're looking for a house, this is a great time! House prices and general food prices make for a much lower cost of living than many parts of the country, especially those with similar populations to Cleveland. Sometimes this is offset by lower taxes, but your consumption rate can be a little higher without incurring as much cost.
6. Renewable energy -- There is a lot of wind out on Lake Erie. This primes the region for becoming one of the premier renewable energy markets as we move forward with attempting our energy independence. The Great Lakes Institute for Energy Innovation is a start up at Case Western that could really help to move this forward.

I'm still really glad that I moved back to Cleveland. I only dealt with winter from Feb - April last year, so we'll see how I handle an entire Cleveland winter. I'm not saying I'll live in the Great North forever, but that for now, it fits me just right. Keep warm!

There are so many great examples of open source these days. I find more and more that I can accomplish just about any task, either online or in the real world, with the aid of open source, especially software. For a relatively recent grad, I appreciate any opportunity to save money for the future. This could easily be the same case if I ever have the opportunity to start a business, as not many entrepreneurs relish the thought of paying thousands for an enterprise solution software package (such as Oracle). Let's look at a few examples:

1. Blogging - There are tons of sites out there that will give you space to host your blog either because they want exposure for their own site or have advertising motives. My blog is done published using WordPress, a wonderful free software. You can either have them host at their site or you can install their software really easily on your own hosting site. It's amazing how well developed the software is and how easy it is to post and maintain online content. I remember when I first tried making websites back in the 90s I was so overwhelmed that I never ended up getting a site online. Now it's a snap!
2. Software - This is where the most open source opportunities come from and is really what drove the advances in open source. Here are some of my favorites.
   1. Wikipedia - This has to be one of the most prevalent examples on the internet today, not only of free software, but free information that is surprisingly accurate. The amazing thing about it is how effective it is as a standalone website. Google just about anything these days and a Wikipedia entry is likely to be at the top of the results. Why? Because Google works by popularity and whatever site the most people link to is usually the top hit on the results page (with some other criteria in there too). So many people link to Wiki articles though, that they often shoot to the top. Wikipedia is kept accurate and up to date by its contributors and moderated by some superusers, but has been shown to be effective as less and less people watch TV and instead spend their time online helping moderate content.
   2. Linux - A favorite of mine, this is the Windows killer that people have been talking about for years. It's getting close, but Apple will probably chip away at Microsoft's dominance first. Either way, it's amazing how far the Linux systems have come from even just a few years ago. There are myriad releases available that suit different needs of users, but Ubuntu is the most popular now thanks to a user interface that is simple, similar to Windows and to be honest is spectacular. An add-on, once called Beryl, now Compiz-Fusion, is a spectacular interface that started following some of the OS X features (from Apple) and then was heavily copied in Microsoft's Vista (flop). If you need some free software that does a tremendous job and is well supported, go with Ubuntu.
   3. PHP/MySQL - More software that makes this blog and many like it possible. WordPress is written in PHP, an open source software protocol that pulls from online databases. MySQL is the language that makes those databases possible. It is used in some of the most powerful sites on the web and is a simple standard to learn.
3. Clothes - This one is definitely more unorthodox, but makes sense. A company called Threadless.com offers the opportunities to submit designs that are voted on by users and then they manufacture the most popular versions of the shirt and sell them. The artist gets a cut of the profits and the company doesn't have to maintain an in-house staff. The situation is reminiscent of freelance photographers; it may not be the best for the artist, but it produces some spectacular work for the end user. Another company started doing this recently for shoes too. Soon you may be able to have an entire wardrobe based off of user created clothing!
4. Music/Radio - Radio isn't quite open source in the traditional sense, but online radio stations such as Pandora and Slacker are removing the need for big-wig dictated content. Allowing the user to decide what they will listen to more specifically than a station type with lots of songs you don't want to hear ("104.8, playing hits from the 80s, 90s and today!). These online stations allow for you to pare down the specific genre you enjoy and then they will play songs from within that category
5. Analog - This site is about analog, right? Well of course I'm going to include an example how this works.
   1. My favorite example is the open source tube amp project called AX84.com. Me and a friend built up an amp using the schematics and directions on this site; anyone is free to add their own variations and improvements to the base model to share with everyone. Some of the audio samples on the page show that these amps really can crank out some vintage, fuzzy tone that players the world over love.
   2. Another good example is the board layout from vendors. Often times a vendor will give an evaluation board in order to help sell a product (so the user can evaluate how well the product works before buying thousands of them). They will also offer the schematics of the eval board so that the user can directly copy it if necessary and save development time. Although the user does not usually share their modified end product, the fact that the board design can be re-used without a royalty payment makes it more "open" than "closed" source.

With all the free-ness of open source, why do companies do it? Why does anyone do it? Well, there still is an economically positive nature to open source. In the case of the clothing, Threadless.com still can make money through efficient production and distribution. They pass the cost of design to their submitters who make commission on their work. For the software companies, often times the open source version is available for companies to modify under the GNU public license (GPL) agreement, which says that if modifications are made that are not significantly different from the original that the changed version must be made available to the public. Sometimes when a company decides to deviate the software from the open source version, they decide to sell the new product and often times will offer professional support for the new version. Yet another way that open source providers can make money is through advertising revenues. A good example of this is Pandora, even though they are severely threatened by legislation that recently doubled the price of playing a song. Finally, sometimes, there is no revenue stream. People sometimes release open source information and products out of the goodness of their hearts or out of boredom.

Open source will continue to drive innovation because it allows for a free flowing of ideas. The fact that these ideas are free for all to use and modify and then share will ensure that more people will add to the collective knowledge and provide more open source products.

When I started writing on my blog, I promised myself that it would not be about personal issues ("my roommate won't pickup his socks!") or rants about everyday happenings ("The people at the grocery store are slow!"). But I feel that reviewing the past 25 years of my life is good from a historical perspective and in terms of this blog so readers know more about where I'm coming from.

I am constantly amazed at how lucky I have been. I was born a white middle class male to loving parents and into a great family that encouraged my academic and intellectual achievement. I was also born in the United States of America, in an English speaking community that was voted one of the safest in America throughout my childhood. I'd say this already puts me in the top .1% of the world in terms of being dealt some great cards. Add to that the opportunities I've had with the school I was able to attend and the jobs I successfully interviewed for and I can't think of many better situations. On top of all that, I work at a great company with lots of educational opportunities and I do something I really enjoy.

So not to sound like an Oscars speech, but I would like to thank so many people that made the past 25 years of my life possible. I want to thank my parents and sisters for being there for me and putting up with me. I'd like to thank all of my teachers throughout school that encouraged me, especially my high school physics teacher that inspired me to go into engineering. To all of my friends that are kind enough to click on my blog on a regular basis and give me great feedback on all things in my life, not just this blog. To our pound puppy Lola, who licks my face at every available chance and sits next to me whenever I need a canine friend. And saving the best for last, to my beautiful and brilliant girlfriend, who encourages me every day and loves me even when I'm writing about electronics and trying to explain it to her at 11pm.

That's all for now. I thought one mushy post interspersed with serious posts wouldn't be too bad, so I hope you enjoyed. Getting older always seems to have a stigma of life going faster and getting more hectic, but I think of it as more opportunities for learning and meeting new people. I'm sure this year will be another great one. If not, at least I can now rent cars with out that silly under-25 surcharge. Woo!